Wed 7pm EST
RBNY vs Houston Dynamo
- Red Bulls getting back Marquez and Miller for sure, maybe even Taino and Agudelo so looking better on the injury and suspension front but still not sold on they without a creative player in mf and when playing without Henry. They certainly played a very retreated formation in LA and it worked out great for them with 1-0 away win but you've got to factor in that without Henry for 65' vs New England and 90' at LA they've produced exactly one shot on goal. To their credit it was a great move by Lindpere and it went in for the winner but when you only have 35% possession and 1 SOG in 155' of play it's pretty incredible you picked up 6 points in two games. The return of Marquez could be great or horrible depending on his mood after his 3 game suspension and he can no doubt be the best player on the field if he feels like it. Basically what I'm saying is there is nothing to justify RBNY being set at 50%+ favorite against last year's Eastern Conference champs. Houston might have their sights set on weekend match where they open up the new facility in an early revenge game to a team they just lost to a few weeks ago, but I would bet the Dynamo at anything above +200 (3.00). Personally I prefer going small on straight away win than medium on +1/2 as the Red Bulls are a fragile bunch and have a history of taking home games they're favored to win. They do own a 3-3-0 advantage over Houston but the Dynamo come in off a nice 11 day rest and will have played just once game in last 18 days so are VERY fresh. Red Bulls obviously had an evening match in LA and flew home Sunday for a Wed home game and then another this Sunday so a pretty heavy schedule. Great home start, 3-1-0, but as I mentioned they are not a good home team historically, especially not when you consider they have 3-4x the payroll of 16 other MLS teams. Houston not a great road start but never easy playing 7 straight road games and their 2-2-2 record isn't horrible. RBNY now 2 straight clean sheets despite facing nearly 30 shots but on Wed will see a very different type of offense. Whereas LA and NE like to play up the middle with ball on ground Houston keep it out wide and swing in crosses as they're the #1 aerial team in MLS with Bruin and Ching up front and Davis the MLS' best ball crosser this side of David Beckham. Purely a value bet as my odds are quite a bit different than the bookie numbers.
Houston 2.5u +274 pinnacle (+275 bet365, +280 unibet, +290 bwin)
Not happy about this starting here in mid-season. One rule we enforce here is no write-ups. Picks only. I will group these picks under Global Sports in the Standings thread. I usually go back and verify picks from other forums but I will take your word. GL
